After Avoiding AIPAC Challenger in 2024, Poll Tests Competition For Jayapal

I don't think Jayapal's in trouble here

Seattle voters sent The Burner a poll that appears to test U.S. House Representative Pramila Jayapal’s vulnerability in the 2026 election. But given the potential challengers the poll suggested, progressives and the labor movement probably don’t have too much to worry about when it comes to their queen.

The poll asked respondents who they would choose for Congress if the election were held today: Jayapal, Washington State Senator Jesse Salomon, Seattle City Council Member Joy Hollingsworth, or 2024 Republican also-rans Cliff Moon and Dan Alexander. I would make a “nightmare blunt rotation” joke here, but I’d totally smoke with Hollingsworth—and I’m not too proud to admit that.

Jayapal is an odd choice for any of these hypothetical challengers to target, considering she just won her 2024 re-election with 83.9 percent of the vote, according to Ballotpedia. Republican challengers, in particular, seem especially ill-advised—after all, a Republican hasn’t represented Washington’s deeply blue 7th District (which includes much of Seattle, most of Burien, and all of Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, and Vashon Island) since 1979. And the voters already gave the consulting class plenty of data last election: Alexander scraped together 15.8 percent in the general election, and Moon came in fourth in the primary with 4.6 percent of the vote. Womp, womp.

It’s likely the poll aimed to gauge how Salomon and Hollingsworth might fare against Jayapal as more conservative Democrats. It even anticipated some of the criticisms likely to be levied against them, asking respondents whether Salomon’s vote against rent stabilization or Hollingsworth’s brief sparring with the minimum wage negatively impacted their opinion of the candidates.

Neither seems like a particularly strong challenger—especially given Jayapal’s commanding performance in 2024. Salomon's not one to make power moves. In fact there's a running joke that the caucus gives him bills that they don't care about actually passing. And Hollingsworth has basically no wins from her year and change on the City Council, a body where political careers usually peter out, rather than progress.

The only factor that could throw off Jayapal’s groove in the next cycle? A well-funded political action committee (PAC) spending against her. Jayapal’s supporters felt a wee bit nervous that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) might bankroll a challenger in 2024, given her criticism of Israel and her support for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Neither Salomon nor Hollingsworth have branded themselves as a clear AIPAC candidate or someone with a particular liking for Israel --- it typically doesn't come up in their current positions. But regardless, Jayapal supporters think if she survived 2024 without an AIPAC challenger, she doesn't have much to worry about in 2026.